NYM⇄DET

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $29M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kevin Morgan3B·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#790 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Jerry Walker net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Joe Dellicarri2B·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#993 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.