Rosternomics
Log in Sign up 𝕏
← Trade Database
August 13, 1997

SDP⇄ANA

SDP won this trade +$11.2M surplus SDP won this trade +0.0 WAR
SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$11.2M net +0.0
received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $38M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.7 ± 5 expected · -0.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1997 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Ryan HancockP·25y·R/R
+$5.4M+$5.4M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#45 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.8/yr over 0.4 season
Talent
0.34/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Stevenson Agosto
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)
George Arias3B·25y·R/R
−$0.6M−$0.6M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.6± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2
Prior
#187 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form -0.1/yr over 0.6 season
Talent
0.12/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs
ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$11.2M net +0.0
received −$12.8M−$12.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1997 odds 11% → 11% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Rickey HendersonOF·38y·R/L
−$13.2M−$13.2M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.2
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 3.9/yr over 2.4 seasons
Talent
2.70/yr blended
Horizon
0.0 control yr

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · © 2026 Rosternomics