ANA⇄TOR

ANAANA Mike Port net +$0.8M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1989 odds 54% → 55% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff YoungP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Pat Gillick net −$0.8M net -0.4

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1989 odds 66% → 65% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

DeWayne BuiceP·31y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.