CHW⇄SEA

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$24.8M net +10.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$24.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 10.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2006 odds 30% → 34% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt ThorntonP·29y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$24.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 10.5

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.39/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Bill Bavasi net −$24.8M net -10.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2006 odds 15% → 13% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe BorchardOF·27y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.45/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.