STL⇄NYM

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$2.4M net +0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $11M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1998 odds 44% → 47% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn Gilbert2B/OF·33y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#294 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.07/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1998 odds 11% → 10% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wayne KirbyOF·34y·L/R

−$0.7M−$1.5M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.