CHW⇄LAD

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$0.0M net +1.8

received −$5.6M−$5.6M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2001 odds 25% → 24% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos Ortega

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Antonio OsunaP·28y·R/R

−$6.2M−$6.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Dave Wallace net +$0.0M net -1.8

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.8 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2001 odds 16% → 17% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando RodriguezC·12y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1483 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andre SimpsonP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#629 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Gary MajewskiP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#59 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.