SDP⇄CHW

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$4.0M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 27% → 29% (+2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan MeauxP·26y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#766 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$4.0M net -0.5

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2005 odds 50% → 47% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Geoff Blum3B·32y·B/R

+$0.3M−$1.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.