WSN⇄ARI

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$4.0M net +0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2024 odds 3% → 3% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrés Chaparro1B/DH·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$4.0M net -0.8

received +$4.8M+$4.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2024 odds 79% → 77% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dylan FloroP·33y·L/R

+$4.4M+$3.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.