NYY⇄TEX

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$4.0M net +1.3

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2021 odds 34% → 41% (+7.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rougned Odor2B·27y·L/R

−$6.3M−$6.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$4.0M net -1.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2021 odds 1% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh StowersRF·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#54 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Antonio Cabello

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.