PHI⇄KCR

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$18.4M net +2.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $39M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1990 odds 4% → 5% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José de JesúsP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net −$18.4M net -2.7

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1990 odds 5% → 4% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve JeltzSS·31y·B/R

−$0.2M−$1.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.