TOR⇄PIT

TORTOR Gord Ash net −$6.4M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1996 odds 4% → 4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jacob BrumfieldOF·31y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.62 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ted Simmons net +$6.4M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1996 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

D.J. Boston#661B·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #66.0 prospect (Baseball America #66 (1994)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.