PIT⇄CHW

PITPIT Larry Doughty net +$16.8M net +5.6

received +$39.2M+$39.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 4.8 ± 3 expected · 5.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1988 odds 24% → 28% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary RedusOF·31y·R/R

+$39.4M+$39.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 4.8± 3 exp WARrealized 5.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.75/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Larry Himes net −$16.8M net -5.6

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $37M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 3.1 ± 5 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Diaz1B/OF·28y·R/R

+$9.4M+$9.4M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 3.1± 5 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.80/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.