TEX⇄MIA

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$90.4M net +10.2

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $29M expected surplus · +$88.8M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 10.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1997 odds 9% → 11% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick HellingP·26y·R/R

+$12.6M+$12.6M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$88.8M 2.1± 4 exp WARrealized 10.3

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.47/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$90.4M net -10.2

received +$0.8M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1997 odds 32% → 27% (-4.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ed VosbergP·35y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.0M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.