TEX⇄MIA

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$128.0M net +7.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$142.4M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 13.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1996 odds 70% → 76% (+6.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John BurkettP·31y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$142.4M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 13.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.76/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$128.0M net -7.8

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $35M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 5.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1996 odds 38% → 30% (-7.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan DempsterP·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 5.1

Prior

#66 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rick HellingP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

Composite #45.0 pedigree (Baseball America #45 (1994)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.