STL⇄MIA

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$92.8M net +15.4

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $31M expected surplus · +$89.6M realized received 3.3 ± 4 expected · 17.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1999 odds 8% → 9% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Édgar RenteríaSS·22y·R/R

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$89.6M 3.3± 4 exp WARrealized 17.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.10/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$92.8M net -15.4

received +$77.6M+$77.6M ± $55M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 14.6 ± 7 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pablo Ozuna2B/3B·24y·R/R

+$57.8M+$57.8M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 8.9± 5 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

Composite #8.0 prospect (Baseball America #8 (1999)) → 1.62/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.62/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Braden LooperP·24y·R/R

+$18.2M+$18.2M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 4.6± 4 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

#3 overall draft pick → 0.96/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Armando AlmanzaP·26y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#592 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.