CHC⇄ANA

CHCCHC Dallas Green net +$4.8M net +0.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1988 odds 6% → 7% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd FischerP·27y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Mike Port net −$4.8M net -0.7

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $17M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1988 odds 6% → 5% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chico Walker3B/OF·30y·B/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.9/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.68/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.