LAD⇄NYM

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$0.8M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2024 odds 83% → 83% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yohan RamírezP·29y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM David Stearns net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2024 odds 39% → 38% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.