BOS⇄DET

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$4.0M net +0.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $46M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 6 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1994 odds 2% → 3% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rich RowlandC·30y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $46M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 6 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#447 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Jerry Walker net −$4.0M net -0.5

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $34M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1994 odds 3% → 2% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John FlahertyC·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#641 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.