NYM⇄WSN

NYMNYM Al Harazin net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1992 odds 3% → 3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob Katzaroff

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1992 odds 27% → 26% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Doug SimonsP·25y·L/L

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#233 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.