CHW⇄ANA

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$9.6M net +9.1

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $39M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · 9.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Roberto HernándezP·24y·R/R

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 3.4± 5 exp WARrealized 9.0

Prior

#16 overall draft pick → 0.61/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mark Doran

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Mike Port net −$9.6M net -9.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mark DavisOF·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#232 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.