STL⇄NYM

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$0.0M net +1.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1999 odds 8% → 9% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Craig Paquette3B·30y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$0.0M net -1.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1999 odds 74% → 73% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawon DunstonSS·36y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.