HOU⇄NYM

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$11.2M net +3.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2004 odds 71% → 71% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan WheelerP·26y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

#1024 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net −$11.2M net -3.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2004 odds 2% → 2% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam SeussLF·23y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1091 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.