BAL⇄DET

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$3.2M net +0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2014 odds 41% → 43% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve Lombardozzi2B/OF·25y·B/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$3.2M net -0.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $5M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2014 odds 66% → 65% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Álex GonzálezSS·37y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $5M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.