SFG⇄BAL

SFGSFG Al Rosen net +$0.8M net +0.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ken GerhartOF·28y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $42M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Francisco Meléndez1B·25y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.