ARI⇄MIA

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$184.0M net +9.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$232.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 17.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2019 odds 20% → 23% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zac GallenP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$232.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 17.0

Prior

#106 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Michael Hill net −$184.0M net -9.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$48.0M realized received 2.8 ± 2 expected · 7.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jazz Chisholm2B/OF·21y·L/R

+$7.5M+$7.5M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$48.0M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 7.8

Prior

Composite #59.5 prospect (Baseball America #59 (2019) / MLB Pipeline #60 (2019)) → 0.52/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.