MIL⇄ANA

MILMIL Harry Dalton net +$16.0M net +1.4

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $33M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1991 odds 4% → 5% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dante BichetteOF·27y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $33M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Mike Port net −$16.0M net -1.4

received −$12.0M−$12.0M ± $0M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1991 odds 4% → 3% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave ParkerOF·40y·L/R

−$11.9M−$11.9M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.