LAD⇄SEA

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$4.0M net +0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2025 odds 85% → 86% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will KleinP·25y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#135 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$4.0M net -0.9

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2025 odds 50% → 49% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe JacquesP·30y·L/L

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#984 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.23 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.