SFG⇄BAL

SFGSFG Al Rosen net +$13.6M net +3.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $15M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · 4.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1989 odds 40% → 48% (+8.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Terry KennedyC·33y·L/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 4.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.01/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$13.6M net -3.7

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $21M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1989 odds 12% → 9% (-3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob MelvinC·27y·R/R

+$6.0M+$6.0M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 2.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.81/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.