NYM⇄PHI

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$28.0M net +1.2

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $37M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 4.0 ± 5 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2001 odds 5% → 6% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bruce ChenP·24y·L/L

+$17.8M+$17.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

Composite #4.0 pedigree (Baseball America #4 (1999)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.43/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Adam WalkerP·25y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#769 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$28.0M net -1.2

received −$12.8M−$13.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$28.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2001 odds 28% → 24% (-3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Turk WendellP·34y·B/R

−$6.5M−$7.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$20.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Dennis CookP·38y·L/L

−$6.6M−$6.6M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.