TBR⇄ARI

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$1.6M net +0.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $11M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.4 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2022 odds 20% → 21% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David PeraltaOF·34y·L/L

+$6.9M+$6.9M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.39/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$1.6M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2022 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Christian CerdaC·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.