NYY⇄SFG

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$27.2M net +3.8

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $38M expected surplus · +$24.0M realized received 6.2 ± 5 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2012 odds 86% → 89% (+3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris StewartC·30y·R/R

+$33.3M+$33.3M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$24.0M 6.2± 5 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

#373 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.8/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

1.63/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$27.2M net -3.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2012 odds 48% → 41% (-7.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

George KontosP·27y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#164 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.