MIL⇄CLE

MILMIL Sal Bando net +$178.4M net +16.3

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $26M expected surplus · +$172.0M realized received 1.7 ± 3 expected · 17.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1996 odds 5% → 4% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeromy BurnitzOF·27y·L/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$172.0M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 17.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$178.4M net -16.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1996 odds 91% → 93% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin Seitzer3B·34y·R/R

+$5.2M+$5.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.