STL⇄ANA

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$2.4M net +0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1998 odds 45% → 47% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chip Hale2B/3B/DH·33y·L/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.36 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1998 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Craig Shipley3B/SS·35y·R/R

+$0.3M−$0.5M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.