OAK⇄TBR⇄KCR

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$211.2M net +26.2

received +$57.6M+$38.4M ± $34M expected surplus · +$191.2M realized received 7.0 ± 4 expected · 30.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2001 odds 84% → 92% (+8.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Johnny DamonOF·27y·L/L

+$51.5M+$32.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 4.6± 2 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Cory LidleP·29y·R/R

+$4.1M+$4.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$56.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 6.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mark Ellis2B·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$136.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 21.9

Prior

#271 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net −$53.6M net -5.2

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $33M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 3.3 ± 4 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben GrieveOF·25y·L/R

+$16.8M+$16.8M± $33M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 3.3± 4 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$157.6M net -21.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $33M expected surplus · −$22.4M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2001 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ángel BerroaSS·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

A. J. HinchC·27y·R/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Roberto HernándezP·36y·R/R

−$4.9M−$4.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$19.2M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.03/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.