CLE⇄DET

CLECLE John Hart net +$6.4M net +0.7

received +$4.0M+$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1998 odds 51% → 54% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim WorrellP·30y·R/R

+$2.5M−$0.6M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Dave RobertsOF·26y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#781 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$6.4M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1998 odds 7% → 6% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gerónimo BerroaDH/OF·33y·R/R

+$2.0M+$0.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.