ANA⇄KCR

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$1.6M net +0.5

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ryan Jackson2B·27y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#159 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.6/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$1.6M net -0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Drew ButeraC·31y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.