MIN⇄DET

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$1.6M net +1.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1997 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brent StentzP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#921 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$1.6M net -1.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1997 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt WalbeckC·27y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.43/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.