LAD⇄ANA

LADLAD Ned Colletti net +$1.6M net +0.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2015 odds 84% → 85% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt Long

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$1.6M net -0.8

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2015 odds 6% → 6% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew ButeraC·31y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.