COL⇄ARI

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net +$0.8M net +1.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1998 odds 4% → 6% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chuck McElroyP·30y·L/L

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$0.8M net -1.5

received +$0.8M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Harvey PulliamOF·30y·R/R

+$1.0M−$0.5M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.