SFG⇄TEX

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$12.8M net +0.7

received −$16.8M−$16.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2001 odds 79% → 80% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrés Galarraga1B·40y·R/R

−$16.6M−$16.6M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.77/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$12.8M net -0.7

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $37M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2001 odds 5% → 5% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd OziasP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#248 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris MagruderOF·24y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#72 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Erasmo RamirezP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#338 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.