SFG⇄MIN

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$8.8M net +1.4

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 3.0 ± 3 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2004 odds 35% → 43% (+7.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dustan MohrOF·28y·R/R

+$15.6M+$15.6M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 3.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.78/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net −$8.8M net -1.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2004 odds 47% → 40% (-7.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J.T. Thomas

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.