WSN⇄CHC

WSNWSN Bill Stoneman net +$52.0M net +4.2

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $36M expected surplus · +$52.0M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 6.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1988 odds 19% → 19% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave MartinezOF·23y·L/L

+$13.6M+$13.6M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$52.0M 2.7± 4 exp WARrealized 6.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Frey net −$52.0M net -4.2

received +$50.4M+$50.4M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 6.2 ± 3 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1988 odds 8% → 7% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mitch WebsterOF·29y·B/L

+$50.6M+$50.6M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 6.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.