ARI⇄ATL

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mason Berne1B·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#982 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2021 odds 40% → 38% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Stephen VogtC·36y·L/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.