STL⇄DET

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$3.2M net +0.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 5 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1996 odds 24% → 25% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Micah FranklinOF·24y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#90 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brian MaxcyP·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#560 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$3.2M net -0.6

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $37M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 3.5 ± 5 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1996 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom UrbaniP·28y·L/L

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#346 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Miguel Inzunza2B·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#855 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.