SDP⇄NYM

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net +$12.8M net +1.3

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $46M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 4.4 ± 6 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1993 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wally WhitehurstP·29y·R/R

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 2.9± 3 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Raúl CasanovaC·20y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#220 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

D. J. DozierOF·27y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #99.0 pedigree (Baseball America #99 (1992)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Al Harazin net −$12.8M net -1.3

received +$10.4M+$6.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 3.1 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1993 odds 3% → 2% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony FernándezSS·31y·B/R

+$10.2M+$6.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 3.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.11/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.