OAK⇄CLE

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$0.8M net +1.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim WorrellP·30y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net +$0.8M net -1.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1998 odds 56% → 54% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam RobinsonSS·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#365 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.