PIT⇄CHW

PITPIT Dave Littlefield net +$2.4M net +1.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2006 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dámaso MarteP·31y·L/L

−$2.0M−$2.0M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$2.4M net -1.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2006 odds 34% → 34% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob MackowiakOF·30y·L/R

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.