ATL⇄CLE

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$4.8M net +0.3

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 2.6 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2001 odds 52% → 53% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve KarsayP·29y·R/R

+$20.1M+$20.1M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.33/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve ReedP·36y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net +$4.8M net -0.3

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $35M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 4.5 ± 4 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2001 odds 70% → 69% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John RockerP·26y·R/L

+$18.0M+$18.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Troy Cameron3B·22y·S/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#29 overall draft pick → 0.41/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.