CLE⇄STL

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $20M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2008 odds 26% → 28% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony ReyesP·26y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

Composite #41.0 pedigree (Baseball America #41 (2006)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2008 odds 59% → 57% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis PerdomoP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.