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January 9, 2020

TBR⇄STL

TBR won this trade +$85.6M surplus TBR won this trade +7.6 WAR
TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$85.6M net +7.6
received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$101.6M realized received 3.7 ± 3 expected · 11.5 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2020 odds 51% → 62% (+11.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Randy ArozarenaOF·25y·R/R
+$8.7M+$8.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$101.6M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 11.5
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.8/yr over 0.1 season
Talent
0.36/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
José Martínez1B/OF·31y·R/R
+$8.7M+$8.7M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.0/yr over 1.8 season
Talent
0.70/yr blended
Horizon
3.0 control yrs × 0.79 age decline
STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$85.6M net -7.6
received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $42M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · 3.9 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2020 odds 7% → 5% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Matthew LiberatoreP·20y·L/L
+$12.2M+$12.2M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 3.4± 5 exp WARrealized 3.9
Prior
#16 overall draft pick → 0.61/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.61/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Edgardo Rodriguez
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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